01152017 -Gold-Silver-Miners-Dollar – Weekly Analysis Report

01152017 -Gold-Silver-Miners-Dollar – Weekly Analysis Report

Last week I posted some very high level trends for the precious metals complex (PMC) which could be years out. I am seeing that the PMC structure may be morphing to show us its hand. lets dive in. This week i want to get back to short term forecasts. Also I am going to introduce two fictional portfolios (regular and aggressive) that shows my inclinations.

$GDM Miners index

Double resistance is holding the price action now ( HS neckline – black dotted line and yellow fork). CCI, RSI etc are are breaking down and moving south. Blue arrow shows my thought on this for next move.

2

GDM Daily:  I have drawn another thought pattern for further morphing of this price action into a potential Triangle (created by yellow fork and red fork). Or we could get a consolidation pattern as shown by the black rectangle. I will be monitoring these two structures closely.

3

GDM daily line chart. The line chart shows the breakout of the trend line and we should now get a backtest based on energy models.  When I say energy models, I am basically referring to combination of RSI, CCI, TSI, Fast stoc, slow stoc etc…

4

GDM Monthly: I drew in the triangle consolidation pattern that could happen in early 2017. Triangle created off the big yellow fork and tiny black fork. My gut feel is that it may not break this yellow fork this year as we have two major political events in Europe that could propel gold higher due to political risk hedging.

5

Gold Daily: Gold is at Major resistance line and only an act of god will probably break it and close above it on first hit when energy models are at overbought levels.

6

Longer term view of gold chart, I believe gold hit the green fork and also it is psychological level of 1200 which is resistance. So it is highly likely that price will follow my blue arrow back to test that black fork. We know that the black fork is hot as it bounced off it already once.

7

Gold daily another view shows the black dotted trend line, which is going to be resistance for now. Best bet is, it will go back down to test the blue trend line. If gold break the blue trend line, it will go sub 1000 but i don’t see that happening in the next few months.

9

Gold Monthly shows my thought pattern of Triangle consolidation pattern that could form now before a major direction is chosen.

10

Gold weekly, I am expecting price now to test the blue fork median line

11

Gold weekly shows my thought pattern in the red arrow. we have double resistance at blue fork and red dotted trend line.

12

Gold Weekly double resistance closeup look. Also I threw in a triple resistance line (purple dotted line) which is parallel to the line connecting the 2015 high and 2016 high.

13

Gold weekly, also I am showing a fourth support zone of 1140 showing where price has bounced off of in 2015 and 2014.

14

HUI miners index showing a change in structure of the internals. Unless the price collapses back into the black fork, we have to consider this valid and act accordingly. Price could still fall back as shown by blue arrow to test the black fork.

15

Silver also is at double resistance as shown by the black fork and red fork. Energy models are turning down so expect the blue arrow direction.

16

Silver Monthly longer term shows the major blue fork that held price in check in 2016 and could potentially do that again in 2017.

17

USD dollar is at double resistance of rectangle that it broke our of and also the purple fork median line. Price should rally now and should push gold down.

18

USD weekly, we can see that price is at major support. Its not going to crack that in an environment of weak euro and trump policies.

19

Finally I want to shown GDM 2hour chart and you can see that TRIX has turned down. Historically it has proven to be a valid indicator. Lets hope its signally the price fall in miners. I expect price to retrace back to the shaded zone before rallying again.

1142017

Conclusion:

Dollar is ready to rally and should push precious metals complex down. I will post the regular and aggressive portfolios in the next few days when I make some simulated trades.

Good luck trading.

Krystar for PMF

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