11182016 -Gold-Silver-Miners-Dollar – Weekly Analysis Report

11182016 -Gold-Silver-Miners-Dollar – Weekly Analysis Report

bearish-signals

The bear is on the prowl in the precious metals complex. Next week is going to be quiet due to the thanksgiving in USA but you never know. Lets start with Gold.


Gold Dally

I have drawn the thought patterns with arrows on most of the charts today. On the daily gold chart you can see that I am still expecting a bounce to the blue fork median line before another major drop to the lower median line blue ball as shown.

 


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On the longer term daily gold chart, you can see how the blue fork fits in the black fork.

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Gold Weekly chart below I am expecting gold to target the red bold dotted rail before a reversal pattern can be formed.


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On a closer look at the gold weekly,  in order for this gold bull market which started in Jan of 2016 to be intact, we have to create a lower low. That can happen only if price stays above the 1040 number. I am expecting gold to bounce at 1110, and that should maintain the bull in tact.

Also I have drawn a pink rail connecting the 2015 and 2016 highs. Drawing a parallel rail from the 1040 low, we can it is intersecting with the red rail at 1110.

5


Gold COT

We can see that gold commercial short positions (brown bars) are receding but still too high for comfort.

gc


US Dollar

The dollar has broken out of the downtrend channel on the daily and also completed the backtest. After the backtest, dollar has been on a tear last week. Now we can see that the indicators are all in the overbought conditions, we can expect a quick backtest and bounce as shown by the pink arrows.

 

6


Dollar COT

Commercials (big banks) are short as shown by brown curve and we can expect them resolve by the backtest.

cot_usdx


HUI Miners Index

On the 2hr chart of the HUI I have drawn the thought pattern with blue arrows. If dollar is going to do a backtest, we can get our backtest on the metals and miners to H&S breakdown area. The indicators are oversold and turning up indicating a bounce is imminent.


8


On the HUI daily chart, you can clearly see the thought pattern shown by the blue arrows.


9


On the longer term HUI daily, I want to show that we bounced of the green ball number 6, and price is not ready to takeout the big black fork on first hit. Price now need to coil again before it can gain energy to breakdown the black fork line.


10


On the longer term HUI chart, price action is resting on top of the big red fork median line. Its not going to breakdown this red rail down on first hit. Expect the second coil happen next week.

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On the HUI Monthly, we can clearly see that price is resting on the blue fork line.

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On the longer term Monthly HUI chart, I have drawn the thought pattern. My best guess is that by February 2017 we should have bottomed on the HUI on the Blue fork.

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On the HUI weekly you can see that there is lot of support below the 140 area. Also the H&S pattern shown is targeting the 140 area as well.


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We have the same story on the GDM index.

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Another view of the GDM index, shows where we could get a bounce for the backtest.  thing to be aware of is that price could go all the way top blue down trend fork, but I am going to assign that a low probability as there is heavy inventory of stock in the H&S area.

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XEU is the Euro daily chart and it has correlated well with gold so far. Euro has broken down and I am expecting a backtest to the median and that should help gold do its backtest. Also the indicators CCI and RSI are in oversold territory and curling up.


17


On the XEU weekly, you can see Euro really decided to breakdown out of the red fork. Now it will do back test.


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Euro COT

Commercial are very long the Eurodollar suggesting that euro should bounce

ed


On the XJY Yen weekly chart, we have a breakdown as well. Yen and precious metals have correlated well so if we get a bounce in Yen, that should corrleate will with Dollar drop for its backtest.


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Silver Daily

Silver has broken down of its slanted H&S pattern and its hightly probable that it will test its breakdown area as shown by the blue arrows.


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Silver COT

Silver COT commercial short positions as shown by brown bars are still up in the nose bleed area. Expect a big crash in silver price after this brief bounce.

si


Precious Metals Weekly Combo Chart

The combo chart below is comparing weekly GLD, SLV, HUI, GDXJ and GDX. You can clearly see that all of them have broken down from the Head and Shoulders pattern, and are in the process of doing a quick backtest to the underside of the rails. Once that is done, we can see a quick drop down.

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Conclusion: I am expecting a backtest for precious metals in the form of a bounce up to the necklines of the Head and shoulder pattern breakdown. Subs can track price action by looking a the live charts on the live charts page. Good luck trading.

I am going to publish this week report in the public area for marketing purposes. As always we appreciate if you can tell your friends to subscribe to the site.

Krystar for Precious metals forecast.



P.S

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Gold, Silver, Miners Monthly and Weekly Charts Review

Gold Silver Miners Monthly and Weekly Charts Review:

This is probably the longest report that I have done to date so grab a cup of coffee or a can of beer before starting as this may take a while for you to understand the essence of the charts as you study the indicators and the chart patterns.

The report is laid out to show a close up of the chart and then the complete chart with all indicators is shown. I use all the indicators to help me provide the price actions momentum and when used with price action technical analysis, it can be very powerful.

Please note that all the live charts for below are in the links section for subscribers.


Gold Monthly 

Gold price action is up against a massive resistance trend line, it has been butting against. Looking at the indicators, they are all at the top and don’t have enough energy to break out at this moment.

Price has to do a swing down to gather momentum. We can expect price to test 1200 or so before a blast higher in 1st quarter 2017.

capture

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Gold Weekly chart.

Indicators are pointing up so we can expect a rally to test the down trend line one more time before a breakdown.

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Gold COT are still high. Once the hedgers are scared they may try to exit all at once and could cause the price to collapse. 

gc



Silver Monthly: With all indicators is below and you can see that they are all the top of the range and could make a trip back down before breakout.

cu

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Silver COT are still up in the sky for commercial short positions shown by the brown bars. Once they start to exit these positions, expect a massive drop in silver. That will then reset the sentiment to bearish level, which is required for the bull to continue.

si

Silver Weekly: Also we are in month 8 of price rising and its time for a correction which scares the longs. If price breaks down from red fork, there is a 80% chance that it will tag the bottom red rail as shown by the red circle.

sil

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GDM Monthly: Gold Miners Index. The indicators have definitely turned negative and 80% probability of targeting the middle median line.

gdm

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GDM Weekly should give us a more detailed look at the price action and provide guidance as to what price may do in the short term. CCI and RSI are turning up so we can expect price to tag the middle median line again.

Also the cycle curves are showing that price has peaked and we can expect price to drop after a brief uptick.

gdmweek

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ABX – Barrick Gold is a major miner. We can see that CCI has definitely crossed down the trigger line, so my expectation is that it will tag the middle red median line.

abx

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AEM : Agnico Eagle Mines is also a heavy weight in this sector. I believe we have hit a top for this rally so with indicators curled down, we can expect price to at least target the middle red median line and worst case will bounce off the blue bottom rail. Timing will be published as get closer. 

agnico

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ASA Monthly: The patterns look similar to what we have seen above.

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AU Anglogold Ashanti: The patterns look similar to what we have seen above.

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AUY Monthly: The patterns look similar to what we have seen above.

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CDE Coeur mines. Notes on the chart

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EXK Endeavour Silver

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FCX Monthly: The patterns look similar to what we have seen above.

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FNV Franco Nevada Corp

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FSM Fortuna Silver Mines:

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GFI Gold Fields Ltd

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GG Gold Corp

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GOLD Rangold: Black dot is the potential target for this drawdown

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GORO Gold Resources Corp: Potential target is shown by the black dot on the chart.

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HL: Hecla Mining: Price not tagging the upper black trend line shows weakness and now price will fall back down towards the blue dot during this draw down. Also note that the red bold rail is going to act as huge resistance now.

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HMY Harmony Gold Mining

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KGC Kingross Gold Corp

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IAG Iamgold corp

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NGCMY Newcrest Mining

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MAG Silver corp

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NEM Newmont Mining

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NG Novagold Resources

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NGD New Gold Inc

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PAAS Pan American Silver Corp

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PPP: Primero Mining

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RGLD

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SA Seabridge gold..more draw down before a sustainable rally…

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SAND Sandstorm gold

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SGBL Sibanye Gold

If the red rail gives, expect price to drop tothe blue dot

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SLW Silver Wheaton 

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SSRI Silver Standard Resources

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TAHO Tahoe Resources

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BAA Banro

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GPL 

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Subscribe today by clicking http://preciousmetalsforecast.com/register/ so you can ride this bull market with us.

Also follow us on Twitter to get latest updates on the precious metals market.


End of Report.

Gold, Silver, Miners, Stock Market Big Picture Forecast! It’s a Bull Market!

Post by PreciousMetalsForecast.com

Let me start off by saying this, we are in a Bull Market in Gold, Silver and Miners which started in earnest in January of 2016.

In this report we will look at the major factors which are going to affect the price of the PM complex, stock markets etc

Dollar drives the markets, so it is critical to under the structure of its price action.

Looking at the Monthly chart of the dollar below, we can see that it has broken out of the downtrend line and currently coiling in to a spring, which hold energy. Also price is resting on the purple fork.

dollar

What investors have to understand is that in the big picture, Gold, Silver, Miners, Stock Market and Dollar are going to go up as they are in Massive Bull Market.

In order for these markets to rise we need one common denominator. And that factor is massive buying on an unprecedented pace.

Where is that money going to come from?

Our charts of the bond market are flashing a sell signal as you can see in the long term monthly chart of TLT. As you can see the bond market has been in a bull trend based on the upsloping angle of the fork since 2002. Now the Price has bounced off the top trend line and the CCI and RSI indicators have topped and beginning to fall.

tlt-20yr

The bond market is at least 10 times bigger than the stock market and when that breaks down, all that money is going to start funneling in to the gold, silver, miners, stock markets, and dollar.

Now lets look at how high and when can we expect these markets to reach these levels.

On the below gold monthly chart, price has been rallying for the past 8 months and now is at critical resistance as shown by the blue downtrend line(double line). Once price breaks out of this (timing and live charts to be shared with subscribers only) and it is coming up soon. Once the price starts climbing we have targets for gold in the range of $5000 to $8000 by 2020-2021(exact dates are for subscribers).

gold

Gold Live Link Chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=8&dy=0&id=p48916344796&a=463514033&listNum=15

Silver Monthly chart. You can see that silver has bounced of the bottom rail and is on its way. our target for silver will be in the range of $500 to $600. Its going to be a paradigm shift. We will keep track of its progress on the site.

silver

Miners Monthly Chart using the miners index HUI. Once the price breaks overs the down trend fork line, its off to the races.hui

Good Luck and subscribe to our services to prosper and track with us this massive multiyear bull rally in Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Complex and Stock Markets.

By

Krystar

Owner of PMF www.PreciousMetalsForecast.com

Subscription link: http://preciousmetalsforecast.com/register/

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© 2016 Copyright www.PreciousMetalsForecast.com– All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

 

Miners and Silver update

Lets look at GDXJ daily and we see that it has backtested the blue dotted rail and making its way down to the bottom of the red fork

capture

Since it dropped hard through the median line of the red fork, it has to backtest it. Also we have 80% probability that it will hit the bottom red rail. looking the indicators, it may hit the bottom red fork before a bounce for a second right shoulder..

Live GDXJ chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p30750113056&a=463865160&listNum=15


We have a similar pattern on GDX…

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Live chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p92286978888&a=461424604&listNum=15


Silver

Looks like silver is leading and is going to hit the bottom of the blue fork median line shortly before a bounce…I will keep the team posted as things progress…

capture

Silver SLV proxy live chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p25111167512&a=463401652&listNum=15


i will post a big picture analysis this week so you all know whats in store for the next few critical months (with elections etc)

Subscribe to the site to get access to 150 live charts of gold, silver, miners, dollar and stock market indices…

Imtiaz (Krystar) Syed

PMF Technical Analyst

Gold, Silver and Miners Weekend Report

Next week is going to be critical as we are at a critical junction with respect to the moving averages in the precious metals forecast.

Lets start by looking at Silver.

On the weekly you can see that Silver has started to breakdown in its indicators. CCI is below the 80 line with confirmation from RSI. I am forecasting a inverse head and shoulders pattern forming which should be a good formation for the baby bull market to establish. This market may run up for the next few years. Also note that the slow stoc is turning.

sc (1)

The silver daily chart next shows the potential island reversal pattern (cyan circle). Very high likelihood of it gapping down next week. Also TRIX has crossed down. Very bearish sign atleast until the brexit on June 23rd

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On the next gold weekly we can see that all the indicators are turning down nicely. Also notice that there is a gap at 114 that needs to be filled up…sc (2)

On the GDX weekly you can see that stocRSI is dropping giving us an advance warning that this sector is going to go down. Also I have drawn the thought pattern for GDX for the next few weeks…Fast TSI is ready to cross over…

sc (4)

The final chart driving all the above action is the usd…I will looking to get into the precious metal markets when dollar reacts to the blue line…

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Good luck to us all NOW!!!

Silver two times bull etf : AGQ analysis

Silver two times bull etf : AGQ analysis

We will look AGQ in three different time frames i.e daily, weekly and monthly. Also we will look at major resistance levels and support zones. Silver has many hurdles to overcome since its downturn since April of 2011.

Good new first. Below chart shows that AGQ has broken out of the rectangle pattern which has been in effect since December. Good news is that agq broke out of the pattern with huge volume.

agq

 

Next let us look at a secondary pattern i.e a slanted head and shoulders pattern and I am showing the target of $106 in the near term where we can expect some bounce down.

agq1

 

Next daily chart shows agq breaking out of the trend line which was in effect since middle of August 2013.

agq2

 

Next Monthly chart shows that the long time down trend line is still in effect. We hope this trend line will be taken out this time around.

agq3

 

Next weekly chart shows that the parabola that has been effect since August of 2011 has been broken. This is a huge development for AGQ. This breakout should have enough energy for it to atleast tag its 200dma which is at $204.

agq4

Next weekly chart shows that the major trend line from April of 2011 is still in effect. But with the break of parabola, we can say that the probability of it breaking out of the trend line is high.

agq5

 

Our price objective for AGQ is $106 as a first stop…then it may tag the $160mark and  then tag $204 (its 200dma on weekly). But please remember that anything can happen in the market place.